Assignment Code: MEV-024/TMA/2020/2021-22

Course Code: MEV-024

Assignment Name: Climate Change Assessment Tools

Year: 2021-2022

Verification Status: Verified by Professor

Max. Marks: 100

Note: This assignment is based on the entire course.

Answer any five questions. All question carries equal marks. The marks for each question are indicated against it within brackets on the right-hand side.

Please write all answers in your own words.

Q1. Write short notes on the following:

a. Crop Simulation Model

Ans) By including core processes, model structure, input and output parameters, and testing prediction quality, a crop simulation model is being built using robust data at different growth phases. Rather of focusing on the model's coherence with a specific data set, the model developer must investigate the model's behaviour. For the model developer and user, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and related methodologies become more useful.

Growth and development processes, soil-water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics, and crop-pest interactions are all part of a crop simulation model for agriculture. Furthermore, every operation is stated in terms of mathematical equations, and the crop/cultivar influences the factors that are factored into the equations.

1. Phenology, photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf area growth, absorption, nitrogen allocation and redistribution, partitioning, source-sink balance, storage organ numbers are all aspects of crop growth and development.

2. Water, nitrogen, temperature, flooding, and frost stress all have an impact on crop growth and development.

3. Interactions between crops and pests.

4. Root water intake, interlayer mobility, drainage, evaporation, runoff, and ponding are all aspects of soil water balance.

5. Mineralization, absorption, nitrification, volatilization, interlayer mobility, denitrification, and leaching are all part of the nitrogen cycle in the soil.

6. Mineralization and immobilisation of organic carbon in the soil.

7. GHG emissions are the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

The crop simulation model includes mathematical equations, parameters, and input variables, all of which are unpredictable. The model will be built on the functional relationships between input and output variables (state and rate). Estimation methodologies, as well as bibliographic reviews and expert opinion, are used to determine parameter values. Model parameters will be less precise due to the fluctuation and lack of previous data.

Some model parameters, on the other hand, may naturally fluctuate from one case to the next. As a result, many sensitivity assessments focus on the uncertainty and natural fluctuation of parameters. The sensitivity study on parameters of the crop simulation model STICS was performed by Ruget et al. in order to discover the essential parameters that needed to be calculated precisely. Model parameters are frequently checked using local sensitivity approaches based on model derivatives with regard to parameters.

Q1. b. Contextual and outcome vulnerability

Ans) Contextual approaches (bottom-up or starting point vulnerability) and outcome approaches are the two types of vulnerability research (top down and end-point vulnerability). The former method concentrates on the factors that influence the system's ability to tolerate and cope with stress. The contextual method has essentially been used to assess the vulnerability of human systems to climate stress and weather extremes by taking into account the contextual aspects that do affect the system. The result vulnerability method, on the other hand, is an integrated paradigm that considers both prospective climatic impacts and socioeconomic capabilities in order to comprehend and measure risk.

"A present inability to cope with external stresses or changes, such as shifting climate conditions," defines contextual vulnerability. Contextual vulnerability is a feature of social and ecological systems that is brought about by a variety of variables and processes."

"Vulnerability as the end point of a sequence of analyses beginning with projections of future emission trends, moving on to the development of climate scenarios, and concluding with biophysical impact studies and the identification of adaptive options," according to the definition of outcome vulnerability. The levels of vulnerability are defined by any residual repercussions that persist after adapting."

Q2. Describe the methods for analysing vulnerability.

Ans) The methods for analysing vulnerability are:

Econometric Method

To assess the susceptibility of different social groups in society, the econometric technique uses "household-level socioeconomic survey data." For vulnerability assessment, the loss of welfare due to shocks is considered. "Vulnerability as expected poverty," "vulnerability as low expected utility," and "vulnerability as uninsured exposure to risk" are the three criteria covered by this strategy. In terms of the predicted poverty structure, an individual's vulnerability is a measure of the likelihood that the individual would become poor in the future as a result of shocks.

In this situation, money or consumption might be used to gauge a person's happiness. To obtain socioeconomic data, this method necessitates a cross-sectional survey. The "vulnerability as uninsured risk exposure" method is essentially an ex post facto vulnerability assessment. This strategy is founded on the assumption that shocks cause a loss of wellbeing, which is linked to a decrease in consumption. To put it another way, the household need insurance against negative shocks, and the amount paid as insurance is equal to the amount of welfare loss sustained as a result of negative shocks.

Indicator Method

"Indicator-based approaches make use of a set of proxy indicators to generate measurable outputs at different spatial scales." This method quantifies vulnerability by selecting a few indicators from a mosaic of indicators and aggregating the selected indicators. This method can be used to analyse vulnerability on a variety of sizes, ranging from local to global, as well as national and regional scales.

However, when it comes to vulnerability assessment by indicator approach, there are two choices. It might be either giving the indicators equal weights or giving them unequal weights. Decision-makers are easily able to comprehend this strategy. In terms of applications, this strategy has the potential to track trends as well as implement adaptive strategies. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI); Household Adaptive Capacity Index (HACI); Well-being Index (HWI); and Index of Social Vulnerability to Climate Change for Africa are examples of this strategy.

"An operational representation of a characteristic or quality of a system capable of providing information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity, and resilience of an element at risk to the impact of an albeit ill-defined event linked to a hazard of natural origin," according to the definition. Vulnerability indicators, in addition to assisting in vulnerability assessment, provide essential information to policymakers in order for them to implement pragmatic climate change adaptation solutions.

For example, in determining social vulnerability, livelihood security and diversity are critical. Furthermore, the vulnerability indicators give a snapshot of the adaptive capacity of the drivers, which is the hallmark of a resilient system. The indicators used and their application in vulnerability assessments are determined by the location, the phenomenon of interest, the problem, the system's adaptive capacity, and other factors. In order to analyse vulnerability, it is critical to select an acceptable and intelligent indication.

Q3. Define geographic information system. Explain its components.

Ans) A Geographic Information System (GIS) is a research tool that allows you to interact with geographic data. It can also be considered a science and technology. It is a computer-based system that can do data capture, preparation, management, modification, and analysis, as well as data presentation. Computer systems, software, data, infrastructure, and GIS users enable these GIS processes and capabilities. Since the 1970s, the use of geographic information systems (GIS) has grown, and it is now used in a wide range of industries. GIS is based on two types of data models: vector and raster. We'll talk about GIS components, GIS data models, and vector and raster data analysis in this unit.

Geographical Information System (GIS) is an acronym for Geographical Information System. There is no universally accepted definition of GIS because it encompasses so many different fields. "A GIS is a system of hardware, software, and procedure to facilitate management, manipulation, analysis, modelling, representation, and display of georeferenced data to solve complex problems regarding planning and management of resources," according to the National Center of Geographic Information and Analysis.

When we look at individual words in GIS, we can see that geographic indicates the spatial location (where in the world), information describes the specificity of the location, and system describes the overall system (integration of different information about different locations). As a result, GIS may be described as a collection of thematic layers that can be linked through geography to contain information about the globe.

GIS is made up of five essential components:

1. A computer, data storage, and display are examples of hardware components.

2. Software consists of tools for managing, analysing, displaying, and disseminating spatial data and information. TerrSet, ArcGIS (ArcView, ArcEditor, ArcInfo), GeoMedia, MapInfo, ERDAS (imagery analysis), and AUTOCAD MAP are examples of GIS software (drafting and design) GRASS; PCI; ENVI; ER; MicroImages; Manifold; GRASS; PCI; ENVI; ER Mapper

3. Data is an essential component of any GIS system. It could be either spatial (geographical location) or tabular (non-spatial) information. Through a database management system, GIS mixes spatial and non-spatial data (DBMS).

4. Method: Knowledge of how to use GIS technology is required for optimal operation of a GIS system. In a GIS system, methods refer to how data is collected, saved, processed, analysed, and displayed.

5. People: People are the technical individuals who design, maintain, and use GIS (for example, GIS analysts, managers, and programmers).

Q5. Explain the different stages of life cycle assessment study.

Ans) In LCA, it is required to examine the many life cycle stages of product producers in order to assess the potential environmental load at each stage, which can affect the product's overall performance as well as its performance in comparison to other similar products. The design and development stage does not normally play a significant part in LCA, but it is crucial to remember that the decisions made at this point set the levels of environmental and other parameters impacts that the subsequent life cycle stages will have.

The four steps of a life cycle assessment are as follows:

Stage 1: Determine the goals and objectives for the evaluation, including how much of the product life cycle will be considered. In this stage, the criteria for system comparison and particular times are provided.

Stage 2: In this step, the inventory analysis is prioritised in terms of the entire material and energy flows within the product manufacturing system, as well as the impact on the environment in terms of raw material consumption and emissions.

Stage 3: Assessment of potential consequences is related to inventory analysis, therefore in this step, all conceivable indicators of prospective repercussions are thoroughly examined. The importance assigned to each effect category is determined by its weight and normalisation.

Stage 4: The analysis is reviewed based on the data's sensitivity as well as the data's presentation, which aids in its accurate interpretation.

The length and breadth of the study are determined in the first step, which also includes a choice on the assessment's goal and purpose. Inventory analysis is one of the steps of LCA that involves compiling and quantifying all of the possible inputs and outputs of the product manufacturing process (a.k.a. life cycle inventory). At this step, a distinction is made between what is included in the product system and what is omitted, which is accomplished through a thorough examination of each product, material, or service in order to identify all of the basic flows. At the life-cycle impact assessment step, the scale of the system's potential environmental implications is determined. This stage can be broken down into four sections.

The first two phases are classification and characterization, as well as calculating impact potentials based on LCI results. These are quantitative steps that correspond to scientific understanding of various environmental phenomena. Normalization and weighting are the final two phases. However, according to ISO standards, the latter two procedures are optional. Normalization (all impacts get the same unit) provides a framework for comparing the many environmental impact categories, and weighting assists in allocating a weighting factor to each impact category based on its level of importance. These two processes are dependent on the right application of scientifically grounded analytical methodologies, not on technical or scientific understanding.

Q6. Write short notes on the following:

a. Climate change adaptation

Ans) "Amendments in ecological, social, and economic systems in reaction to genuine or predictable climatic stressors and their repercussions," according to the IPCC. It takes into account both current climatic variability and future climate change. Many events, risks, and negative consequences, such as rising sea levels, salinization, loss of water resources, gradual disturbances in ecosystems, loss of habitat, species extinction, agricultural production loss, and human health status, are caused by rising temperatures, while climate-related disasters are the result of extreme events. Climate-related calamities have often threatened to derail efforts to achieve long-term sustainability.

According to Leary et al., adaptation might take the shape of a specific action (e.g., a farmer switching from one crop to another that better suits the changing environment), a systematic shift (e.g., extending rural livelihoods), or institutional transformation (revisiting land ownership). Adaptation can refer to both products and processes. He also argued that adaptation should be viewed as a process that includes learning about risk, evaluating response options, increasing adaptation, mobilising resources, implementing adaptation, and adjusting options based on new information.

Climate change adaptation is likely to result in a large reduction in various negative consequences and an increase in positive outcomes. Though climate change adaptation has been discussed for several years through adaptive and organisational responses, little attention has been paid to community-level adaptation and the incorporation of adaption measures into policy. International engagement is critical for government pledges and discussions; but, at the community level, there is an urgent need for increased knowledge of climate change's implications and potential adaption strategies.

Adaptation takes place on a variety of levels, all of which are interconnected. Policies shaped by national and international circumstances establish goals to be met at the local and regional levels. Individuals and organisations, on the other hand, do not function well when they are confined. The interpretation of information and its translation into decisions and behaviours is influenced by social backdrop, individual qualities, and experiences. It is concerned with the interplay of individual and group behaviours as they respond to changing conditions from the bottom up and top down.

Q6. b. Disaster risk reduction

Ans) Human-natural ecological interactions are complex, and the outcome is disaster. There has been a strong argument that there is no such thing as an unavoidable natural calamity. When a natural hazard, such as an earthquake or flood, impacts the human population or community that is exposed and vulnerable to it, disasters can occur. As a result, risk is a function of hazard exposure, human susceptibility, and the extent to which society has participated in disaster mitigation actions. In addition, people's ability to defend themselves and adapt to threats is a critical issue that must be considered.

This can be expressed in a simple equation, R = H x V / C

Where,

R = risk,

H = hazard,

V = vulnerability, and

C = capacity:

Risk is a function of hazard, vulnerability, mitigation, and capacity, as shown by the equation R= f (H, V, C). This is a common way of depicting danger without displaying a realistic relationship. There is also a discussion about including mitigation in the equation, where risk is calculated by multiplying hazard by vulnerability minus mitigation and dividing by capacity.

Disasters undoubtedly have a social component, and whatever their source and repercussions are, they will invariably be anchored in societal developments that make specific persons or groups of individuals vulnerable to their consequences. Disasters have geographical and temporal characteristics, making a specific region vulnerable, while changing socioeconomic factors may affect the susceptibility of specific regions or groups of people over time. Over time, social interpretations of tragedy have grown more commonly accepted and nuanced.

The United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction discovered the urgent need for "community-based approaches" after investigating disaster risk management. Communities all over the world have lived with disasters since ancient times. Communities were able to withstand natural disasters thanks to the approaches and strategies they used. As a result, traditional wisdom must be considered while dealing with climatic calamities.